October 7, 2022
Dragon Ball Super and Beast fight for first

It’s that time of year again, the time when the big summer blockbusters have been out for a while and the fall prestige films are still a few months away. It is a time typically referred to as “the dumping ground,” when studios release films with targeted audiences or ones they simply don’t think will light the box office on fire.

This weekend sees two new movies hitting our local multiplex: The Idris Elba starring Beast about a family in the African wilderness hunted by a rogue Lion and the animated follow up Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero.

Tracking on both films have them in the $10-$15 Million range, however one can look at the previous Dragon Ball film: Dragon Ball Super: Broly, released over the MLK Holiday Weekend in 2019 and pulling in a surprising $22.3 Million over its first five days of release, to see that these films have a loyal fan base that will come out to the theater in support of the franchise.

With a limited sampling of reviews online that are mostly positive, and a lean 93 minute run time, Beast has the potential to be a moderate break out hit for lead star Idris Elba. The “rogue deadly animal” genre has seen some success in the past with the most recent comparison being the 2019 Alligator survival film Crawl, which opened to just over $12 Million in July 2019 or the 1996 Michael Douglas/ Val Kilmer lion hunting film The Ghost and the Darkness opening to just under $10 Million nearly 26 years ago.

It will be a battle for first place between these two films this weekend, but with the Dragon Ball films tending to be front loaded as fans rush out to see it as soon as possible, I think Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero will take first with around $14 Million in receipts with Beast coming in second with around $12 Million.

Losing most of its premium theaters to the new releases, Bullet Train will end up in third place with around $9 Million. The film had a standard drop last week of 55% but strong word of mouth should give this one legs over the next few weeks with smaller week to week drops.

Coming in fourth should be Top Gun: Maverick with a little over $5 Million. This has been the film of the summer, hell, its been the film of the past few summers! Originally slated for release on July 24, 2020, Maverick was delayed several times due to the Covid-19 pandemic with star and producer Tom Cruise never wavering on a theatrical release. That decision has paid off in spades as the film has become the highest grossing film of his career as well as Paramount’s highest grossing film ever! With a limited amount of time to see the film theatrically before it hits home video on November 1st, people who may want to finally see what all the fuss is about as well as people who want to take a trip to the danger zone for a second, third, fourth or fifth time will help keep this one in the top five for a few more weeks.

In fifth place, I’m going to go a bit out of the box and say that I think the well reviewed horror comedy Bodies Bodies Bodies will actually inch up the charts with around $4 Million for the weekend. The film opened on Aug 7th with the highest per screen average of the weekend and has been steadily gaining momentum ever since. This weekend will see the Pete Davidson/ Maria Bakalova starring murder mystery hitting its widest release yet on 2000 screens and could potentially crack the top five for the first time in its third week of release.

What are YOUR Box Office Predictions for this weekend? Will Dragon Ball Super be the champ or does the star power of Idris Elba help Beast claim victory? Let us know in the comments

TOP FIVE BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS:

1) SUPER BALL SUPER: SUPER HERO- $14 Million

2) BEAST- $12 Million

3) BULLET TRAIN- $9 Million

4) TOP GUN: MAVERICK- $5.5 Million

5) BODIES BODIES BODIES- $4 Million

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